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Analysts at UBS count on Apple to see monetary impacts from iPhone 14 Professional manufacturing slowdowns properly into 2023 — however it finally will recuperate earlier than 2024.
In keeping with a report from UBS seen by YourNextApp, the analysts have decreased iPhone unit estimates by 5% for the December quarter, and three% for the 2023 fiscal 12 months. Whereas provide has improved and wait occasions decreased within the US and China, Apple nonetheless faces important hurdles into the brand new 12 months.
UBS had beforehand estimated round 83 million iPhone unit gross sales within the December quarter, however has lowered that by 5% to 79 million models. March quarter estimates have additionally been lowered to 58 million models as a consequence of continued prolonged lead occasions.
This implies UBS expects Apple to ship 7 million fewer iPhones in 2023 — transport 232 million as a substitute of an anticipated 239 million. Nevertheless, the analysts keep the 239 million unit estimate for 2024.
These numbers are a mirrored image of the present wait occasions for high-end iPhones just like the iPhone 14 Professional. Wait occasions have improved, however not by sufficient, and clients are ready properly previous the vacations to obtain present orders.
Wait occasions in China are actually solely 28 days, down from 36 days. And, the US has decreased its wait occasions from 25 days to 23 days.
Regardless of the one-time hit to earnings for the Christmas vacation, UBS is sustaining its $180 value goal as a consequence of core valuation and optionality. It isn’t clear the place or how UBS is deriving iPhone cargo numbers, as Apple hasn’t reported volumes in years at this level.